Monthly lock · 2027-01 · version 2027-01@2026-12-06
Attrition 10% annual (0.87% a month) · shrinkage 30% · lead time = 6 weeks recruiting + training (A 6, C 6, D 8, E 4 weeks) · 49 hiring asks (13 already past their hire-by date) · 10 gates carry surplus above P90 in 2027-01
Over/under trend by product (daily average FTE)
| Product | 2026-09 (actual) | 2026-10 (actual) | 2026-11 (actual) | 2026-12 | 2027-01 | 2027-02 | 2027-03 | 2027-04 | 2027-05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | in +1.4 / out -11.5 · SL 81% | in +6.1 / out -5.8 · SL 82% | in +52.7 / out +43.1 · SL 88% | +51.3 · SL 93% | +2.4 · SL 84% | -18.5 · SL 79% | -3 · SL 84% | +15.4 · SL 87% | +20.1 · SL 88% |
| C | in +1.6 / out -8.1 · SL 81% | in +5.2 / out +2.3 · SL 84% | in +24.8 / out +19.7 · SL 89% | +26.7 · SL 94% | +3.5 · SL 86% | -4.3 · SL 80% | +2.1 · SL 85% | +10.3 · SL 89% | +11.6 · SL 90% |
| D | in +0.8 / out -11.9 · SL 78% | in -2.4 / out -6.9 · SL 80% | in +32.9 / out +29.8 · SL 89% | +37.7 · SL 96% | +0.6 · SL 81% | -8.3 · SL 76% | +1.6 · SL 84% | +14.1 · SL 88% | +18.5 · SL 90% |
| E | in +3.8 / out +0.1 · SL 84% | in +1 / out -10.5 · SL 81% | in +23.5 / out +13.4 · SL 88% | +24 · SL 93% | -0.8 · SL 80% | -10.4 · SL 72% | -3.9 · SL 78% | +6.9 · SL 85% | +8.8 · SL 86% |
Actual months: net before the day (in) and after it (out), from the PDP history. Projected months: planned staff minus required at the central forecast.
The locked plan for 2027-01, by segment (worst first)
| Segment | Product | Required P50 | Required P90 | Planned staff | Over/under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-S08 | A | 39.8 | 43.1 | 34.7 | -5.1 |
| E-S01 | E | 43.2 | 45.6 | 40.9 | -2.2 |
| A-S03 | A | 8.1 | 8.9 | 8.3 | +0.1 |
| C-S07 | C | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | +0.1 |
| D-S04 | D | 52.5 | 56.1 | 52.6 | +0.1 |
| D-S05 | D | 24.5 | 26.2 | 24.6 | +0.1 |
| A-S02 | A | 7.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | +0.2 |
| A-S05 | A | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 | +0.2 |
| C-S05 | C | 10 | 10.8 | 10.1 | +0.2 |
| C-S08 | C | 7.4 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.2 |
| C-POOL | C | 51.2 | 54.5 | 51.4 | +0.2 |
| D-S01 | D | 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.6 | +0.2 |
| D-S06 | D | 17.6 | 18.7 | 17.8 | +0.2 |
| E-S05 | E | 25.9 | 27.7 | 26.1 | +0.2 |
| A-S01 | A | 22.4 | 24 | 22.8 | +0.3 |
| D-ESC | D | 84.6 | 90.1 | 84.8 | +0.3 |
| C-S03 | C | 18.3 | 20 | 18.6 | +0.3 |
| D-S02 | D | 35.2 | 37.7 | 35.6 | +0.3 |
| E-S04 | E | 40.8 | 43.4 | 41.1 | +0.3 |
| A-S04 | A | 21 | 22.7 | 21.4 | +0.4 |
| A-S06 | A | 24.5 | 26.5 | 24.8 | +0.4 |
| D-S03 | D | 20.4 | 21.8 | 20.8 | +0.4 |
| A-S07 | A | 14.8 | 16.2 | 15.2 | +0.5 |
| A-S12 | A | 24.7 | 26.9 | 25.2 | +0.5 |
| C-S01 | C | 10 | 11 | 10.6 | +0.6 |
| C-S04 | C | 15.1 | 16.5 | 15.7 | +0.6 |
| E-S03 | E | 23.5 | 25.2 | 24.2 | +0.6 |
| A-S10 | A | 21.7 | 23.8 | 22.4 | +0.7 |
| A-S14 | A | 22.1 | 24.2 | 22.8 | +0.7 |
| C-S02 | C | 28.5 | 30.6 | 29.2 | +0.7 |
| E-S02 | E | 38.7 | 40.9 | 39.4 | +0.7 |
| A-S09 | A | 33.9 | 36.6 | 34.7 | +0.8 |
| A-S11 | A | 36.7 | 39.6 | 37.6 | +0.8 |
| C-S06 | C | 29.3 | 31.3 | 30.2 | +0.9 |
| A-S13 | A | 39 | 42 | 40.1 | +1 |
| A-POOL | A | 55 | 58.9 | 56.3 | +1.3 |
Headcount runway with no hiring (by product: capacity vs required P50, daily FTE)
| Product | 2026-12 | 2027-01 | 2027-02 | 2027-03 | 2027-04 | 2027-05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 428 vs 331.7 (+96.3) | 423.9 vs 377.5 (+46.4) | 420.4 vs 423.1 (-2.7) | 416.6 vs 459.5 (-42.9) | 413.4 vs 453.8 (-40.4) | 409.7 vs 439.2 (-29.5) |
| C | 201.8 vs 155.2 (+46.6) | 200 vs 175.4 (+24.6) | 198.2 vs 188.2 (+10) | 196.6 vs 205.1 (-8.5) | 194.7 vs 200.6 (-5.9) | 192.9 vs 193.5 (-0.6) |
| D | 265.2 vs 210.9 (+54.3) | 262.8 vs 243 (+19.8) | 260.6 vs 271.7 (-11.1) | 258.2 vs 299.3 (-41.1) | 255.8 vs 294.9 (-39.1) | 253.8 vs 282.1 (-28.3) |
| E | 192 vs 150.6 (+41.4) | 190.4 vs 171.7 (+18.7) | 188.7 vs 198.5 (-9.8) | 187.1 vs 217.1 (-30) | 185.4 vs 214.6 (-29.2) | 183.8 vs 205.7 (-21.9) |
Hiring asks (49)
| Product | Gates | Heads needed | Earliest hire-by | Late |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 25 | 59.7 | 2026-11-09 | 3 |
| C | 9 | 20.5 | 2026-12-07 | 0 |
| D | 9 | 58.9 | 2026-10-26 | 9 |
| E | 6 | 43.6 | 2026-11-23 | 1 |
| Gate | Segment | First short month | Heads needed | Hire by | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G104 | D-ESC | 2027-02 | 17.4 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G149 | D-S02 | 2027-02 | 4.6 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G150 | D-S02 | 2027-02 | 5 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G151 | D-S03 | 2027-02 | 5.3 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G152 | D-S04 | 2027-02 | 3.4 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G153 | D-S04 | 2027-02 | 11.6 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G154 | D-S05 | 2027-02 | 5.9 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G155 | D-S06 | 2027-02 | 4.4 | 2026-10-26 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G115 | A-S08 | 2027-02 | 4.1 | 2026-11-09 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G116 | A-S08 | 2027-02 | 5.4 | 2026-11-09 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G117 | A-S08 | 2027-02 | 5.1 | 2026-11-09 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G101 | E-S01 | 2027-02 | 20.9 | 2026-11-23 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G148 | D-S01 | 2027-03 | 1.3 | 2026-11-23 | too late to hire: mitigate (overtime, cross-train, shared pool) |
| G103 | A-S01 | 2027-03 | 4.3 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G105 | A-POOL | 2027-03 | 9.4 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G106 | A-S02 | 2027-03 | 0.9 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G107 | A-S03 | 2027-03 | 1.1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G108 | A-S04 | 2027-03 | 2.4 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G109 | A-S04 | 2027-03 | 1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G111 | A-S06 | 2027-03 | 1.1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G112 | A-S06 | 2027-03 | 3 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G114 | A-S07 | 2027-03 | 1.3 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G118 | A-S09 | 2027-03 | 2.3 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G119 | A-S09 | 2027-03 | 1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G120 | A-S09 | 2027-03 | 0.7 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G121 | A-S10 | 2027-03 | 1.1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G124 | A-S11 | 2027-03 | 0.6 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G125 | A-S11 | 2027-03 | 0.7 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G126 | A-S11 | 2027-03 | 4.4 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G128 | A-S12 | 2027-03 | 1.6 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G129 | A-S12 | 2027-03 | 1.9 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G130 | A-S13 | 2027-03 | 3.1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G131 | A-S13 | 2027-03 | 0.9 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G132 | A-S13 | 2027-03 | 1.3 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G134 | A-S14 | 2027-03 | 1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G136 | C-S02 | 2027-03 | 1.7 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G137 | C-S02 | 2027-03 | 1.3 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G138 | C-S03 | 2027-03 | 1.7 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G139 | C-S03 | 2027-03 | 0.6 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G141 | C-S04 | 2027-03 | 0.7 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G142 | C-S05 | 2027-03 | 1.6 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G144 | C-S06 | 2027-03 | 0.9 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G146 | C-S08 | 2027-03 | 0.9 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G147 | C-POOL | 2027-03 | 11.1 | 2026-12-07 | |
| G156 | E-S02 | 2027-03 | 7.6 | 2026-12-21 | |
| G158 | E-S03 | 2027-03 | 1.9 | 2026-12-21 | |
| G159 | E-S04 | 2027-03 | 8 | 2026-12-21 | |
| G160 | E-S05 | 2027-03 | 4.6 | 2026-12-21 | |
| G157 | E-S03 | 2027-04 | 0.6 | 2027-01-21 |
Surplus in 2027-01 (capacity above P90 by more than 10%)
| Gate | Product | Surplus FTE | What to do |
|---|---|---|---|
| G143 | C | 3.4 | attrition absorbs it in about 7 months |
| G136 | C | 2.8 | seasonal: hold — needed again by 2027-03; cross-train or lend to a shared pool, do not release |
| G132 | A | 2.1 | seasonal: hold — needed again by 2027-03; cross-train or lend to a shared pool, do not release |
| G120 | A | 2 | seasonal: hold — needed again by 2027-03; cross-train or lend to a shared pool, do not release |
| G157 | E | 1.5 | seasonal: hold — needed again by 2027-04; cross-train or lend to a shared pool, do not release |
| G124 | A | 1.1 | seasonal: hold — needed again by 2027-03; cross-train or lend to a shared pool, do not release |
| G135 | A | 1.1 | attrition absorbs it in about 4 months |
| G123 | A | 1 | attrition absorbs it in about 1 months |
| G113 | A | 0.9 | attrition absorbs it in about 3 months |
| G140 | C | 0.9 | attrition absorbs it in about 1 months |
The lock is a version: a month is locked once, and a relock writes a new version beside the old one. Synthetic data.