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Daily reforecast · as of 2026-12-06
Data through 2026-12-05 · 60 gates reviewed · 4 gates moved past their review threshold over the next 12 weeks · 26 gate-weeks short by more than 10% · 1 flag yesterday that nothing logged explains
Yesterday
- Logged: nothing.
- Flagged, not logged: anomaly on G155 email: volume -15.6% (z -0.9), AHT -9.9% (z -3.6) vs learned.
- Learning: explained or flagged days are never learned from. Over the full history, 9225 gate-channel-days were explained by logged events, 771 were excluded as anomalies, and the rest were learned from.
Migrations
G102 → G101. The planned contact ratio on migrated volume is 1.00. The receiving gate's own level is frozen at the first wave (2026-07-13), and the excess is attributed to the migration.
| Channel | Observed ratio | 95% range | Settled days | Used in the outlook |
|---|
| chat | 1.78 | ±0.40 | 112 | yes: clearly above plan |
| email | 1.17 | ±0.19 | 113 | no: not yet distinguishable from plan |
| voice | 1.23 | ±0.15 | 111 | yes: clearly above plan |
Next wave: 2027-02-01 takes the move to 90%. At the observed ratios it adds about 23.0 FTE of daily work on G101 in its first week, beyond what the record plans.
Signals in the outlook
Applied signal overlays touch 3 gates (see the intake digest for the source of each).
| Gate | From | To | Contacts added (+) or removed (−) |
|---|
| G115 | 2026-12-06 | 2027-06-05 | +3,810 |
| G116 | 2026-12-06 | 2027-06-05 | +4,441 |
| G117 | 2026-12-06 | 2027-06-05 | +4,406 |
Outlook by product · next 12 weeks (daily average FTE)
| Week of | Product | Required (P10–P90) | Planned staff | Over/under | Projected SL |
|---|
| 2026-12-06 | A | 369.1 (355.5–382.7) | 426.8 | +57.7 (+15.6%) | 93% |
| 2026-12-06 | C | 172.2 (165–179.4) | 201.3 | +29.1 (+16.9%) | 94% |
| 2026-12-06 | D | 239.2 (228.8–249.7) | 283.5 | +44.2 (+18.5%) | 96% |
| 2026-12-06 | E | 168.1 (161.2–175.1) | 195.5 | +27.3 (+16.3%) | 94% |
| 2026-12-13 | A | 364.4 (351–377.9) | 414.7 | +50.3 (+13.8%) | 92% |
| 2026-12-13 | C | 170.6 (163.4–177.7) | 198.1 | +27.5 (+16.1%) | 94% |
| 2026-12-13 | D | 233 (222.8–243.1) | 272.7 | +39.7 (+17.0%) | 96% |
| 2026-12-13 | E | 165.3 (158.4–172.1) | 190 | +24.7 (+15.0%) | 93% |
| 2026-12-20 | A | 294.8 (283.7–306) | 343 | +48.2 (+16.3%) | 93% |
| 2026-12-20 | C | 137.7 (131.7–143.7) | 162.3 | +24.6 (+17.9%) | 94% |
| 2026-12-20 | D | 185.9 (177.6–194.2) | 219.2 | +33.4 (+17.9%) | 95% |
| 2026-12-20 | E | 133.7 (128–139.3) | 155.5 | +21.8 (+16.3%) | 93% |
| 2026-12-27 | A | 263 (253.1–273) | 307.3 | +44.3 (+16.8%) | 93% |
| 2026-12-27 | C | 122.4 (117.1–127.7) | 144.8 | +22.4 (+18.3%) | 94% |
| 2026-12-27 | D | 161.8 (154.7–168.9) | 190.1 | +28.3 (+17.5%) | 95% |
| 2026-12-27 | E | 118.7 (113.7–123.6) | 138.4 | +19.7 (+16.6%) | 92% |
| 2027-01-03 | A | 387.3 (373.1–401.6) | 379.6 | -7.8 (-2.0%) | 82% |
| 2027-01-03 | C | 179.3 (171.8–186.8) | 177.8 | -1.5 (-0.8%) | 83% |
| 2027-01-03 | D | 252.2 (241.2–263.2) | 237 | -15.2 (-6.0%) | 70% |
| 2027-01-03 | E | 176.9 (169.5–184.2) | 169 | -7.8 (-4.4%) | 74% |
| 2027-01-10 | A | 393.7 (379.2–408.2) | 399.7 | +6 (+1.5%) | 85% |
| 2027-01-10 | C | 183.1 (175.4–190.7) | 188.9 | +5.9 (+3.2%) | 88% |
| 2027-01-10 | D | 255.8 (244.6–266.9) | 256.8 | +1 (+0.4%) | 82% |
| 2027-01-10 | E | 180.1 (172.6–187.5) | 181.4 | +1.4 (+0.8%) | 83% |
| 2027-01-17 | A | 390.8 (376.5–405.2) | 396 | +5.2 (+1.3%) | 85% |
| 2027-01-17 | C | 182.2 (174.6–189.8) | 187.7 | +5.5 (+3.0%) | 88% |
| 2027-01-17 | D | 242.6 (232–253.3) | 253.7 | +11 (+4.6%) | 87% |
| 2027-01-17 | E | 176.3 (169–183.5) | 178.4 | +2.1 (+1.2%) | 83% |
| 2027-01-24 | A | 404 (389.2–418.9) | 401.8 | -2.3 (-0.6%) | 84% |
| 2027-01-24 | C | 189.2 (181.3–197.1) | 189.8 | +0.6 (+0.3%) | 84% |
| 2027-01-24 | D | 264.1 (252.6–275.6) | 264 | -0.1 (+0.0%) | 82% |
| 2027-01-24 | E | 185.4 (177.7–193.1) | 182.3 | -3.1 (-1.7%) | 80% |
| 2027-01-31 | A | 414 (398.8–429.3) | 385 | -29 (-7.0%) | 77% |
| 2027-01-31 | C | 186.4 (178.6–194.3) | 176.4 | -10 (-5.4%) | 76% |
| 2027-01-31 | D | 269.7 (257.9–281.5) | 254.4 | -15.3 (-5.7%) | 71% |
| 2027-01-31 | E | 195.5 (187.4–203.6) | 181.1 | -14.4 (-7.4%) | 69% |
| 2027-02-07 | A | 422.6 (407–438.1) | 387.1 | -35.4 (-8.4%) | 75% |
| 2027-02-07 | C | 187.8 (179.9–195.8) | 175.5 | -12.4 (-6.6%) | 74% |
| 2027-02-07 | D | 274.8 (262.8–286.8) | 255 | -19.8 (-7.2%) | 68% |
| 2027-02-07 | E | 199.3 (191.1–207.5) | 181.8 | -17.5 (-8.8%) | 66% |
| 2027-02-14 | A | 420.8 (405.3–436.3) | 413.6 | -7.2 (-1.7%) | 82% |
| 2027-02-14 | C | 186.5 (178.6–194.3) | 187.5 | +1 (+0.5%) | 85% |
| 2027-02-14 | D | 260.4 (249–271.8) | 262.5 | +2.1 (+0.8%) | 83% |
| 2027-02-14 | E | 195.6 (187.6–203.7) | 190.5 | -5.1 (-2.6%) | 77% |
| 2027-02-21 | A | 432.7 (416.8–448.6) | 430.1 | -2.6 (-0.6%) | 84% |
| 2027-02-21 | C | 192 (183.9–200.1) | 196.2 | +4.2 (+2.2%) | 87% |
| 2027-02-21 | D | 281 (268.7–293.2) | 281.4 | +0.5 (+0.2%) | 83% |
| 2027-02-21 | E | 202.6 (194.2–210.9) | 198.3 | -4.2 (-2.1%) | 77% |
Review list · every gate, biggest movers first (top 20; all 60 in the CSV)
| Gate | Product | Segment | Workload vs record | Volume correction | AHT correction | Migration overlay | Shifts (60 days) | Weeks short | Worst week |
|---|
| G117 | A | A-S08 | +24.6% | +10.2% | -0.2% | — | voice up 2026-11-17 | 10 | -3.8 FTE |
| G115 | A | A-S08 | +19.5% | +8.2% | +0.0% | — | voice up 2026-11-20; email up 2026-11-17 | 8 | -3 FTE |
| G116 | A | A-S08 | +11.9% | +0.2% | +0.0% | — | — | 8 | -3 FTE |
| G101 | E | E-S01 | +6.9% | -1.6% | +4.2% | 3,217 contacts | — | 6 | -7.6 FTE |
| G152 | D | D-S04 | +4.1% | +2.1% | +0.0% | — | voice down 2026-11-07 | 3 | -1.5 FTE |
| G147 | C | C-POOL | +1.5% | +1.0% | +0.3% | — | — | 2 | -5.1 FTE |
| G107 | A | A-S03 | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.2% | — | — | 2 | -0.6 FTE |
| G119 | A | A-S09 | +0.2% | -0.9% | -0.5% | — | — | 2 | -0.6 FTE |
| G139 | C | C-S03 | -0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | — | — | 1 | -0.4 FTE |
| G146 | C | C-S08 | +0.2% | +0.8% | -0.4% | — | — | 2 | -0.7 FTE |
| G106 | A | A-S02 | -0.1% | -0.9% | +0.3% | — | — | 1 | -0.6 FTE |
| G109 | A | A-S04 | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.1% | — | — | 2 | -0.6 FTE |
| G110 | A | A-S05 | -0.1% | -4.3% | -0.2% | — | — | 1 | -0.3 FTE |
| G114 | A | A-S07 | +0.1% | -2.0% | +0.2% | — | — | 1 | -0.5 FTE |
| G123 | A | A-S10 | -0.1% | -1.2% | +0.0% | — | — | 1 | -0.7 FTE |
| G124 | A | A-S11 | -0.1% | +0.0% | +0.4% | — | — | 2 | -0.7 FTE |
| G127 | A | A-S12 | +0.1% | -4.1% | -0.2% | — | — | 1 | -0.3 FTE |
| G133 | A | A-S14 | +0.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | — | — | 2 | -0.5 FTE |
| G135 | A | A-S14 | +0.1% | -2.5% | +0.2% | — | — | 1 | -0.6 FTE |
| G137 | C | C-S02 | -0.1% | +0.1% | -0.2% | — | — | 2 | -0.8 FTE |
Watchlist · gate-weeks short by more than 10% (26)
| Week of | Gate | Required | Planned staff | Short | Projected SL |
|---|
| 2027-02-07 | G117 | 14.5 | 10.8 | -3.8 FTE (-25.9%) | 43% |
| 2027-01-31 | G117 | 14.5 | 10.7 | -3.7 FTE (-25.8%) | 44% |
| 2027-02-07 | G115 | 13.6 | 10.6 | -3 FTE (-22.4%) | 56% |
| 2027-01-31 | G115 | 13.5 | 10.5 | -3 FTE (-22.2%) | 56% |
| 2027-02-14 | G117 | 14.6 | 11.4 | -3.2 FTE (-22.1%) | 52% |
| 2027-02-21 | G117 | 15 | 12.2 | -2.8 FTE (-18.9%) | 58% |
| 2027-01-24 | G117 | 13.9 | 11.3 | -2.6 FTE (-18.8%) | 61% |
| 2027-02-07 | G116 | 16.7 | 13.6 | -3 FTE (-18.2%) | 64% |
| 2027-01-17 | G117 | 13.6 | 11.1 | -2.4 FTE (-18.0%) | 61% |
| 2027-02-14 | G115 | 14.1 | 11.6 | -2.5 FTE (-17.9%) | 63% |
| 2027-01-10 | G117 | 13.6 | 11.2 | -2.4 FTE (-17.8%) | 61% |
| 2027-01-31 | G116 | 16.3 | 13.5 | -2.7 FTE (-16.8%) | 66% |
| 2027-01-24 | G115 | 13.4 | 11.2 | -2.2 FTE (-16.7%) | 67% |
| 2027-01-03 | G116 | 15.5 | 13.2 | -2.3 FTE (-14.7%) | 69% |
| 2027-02-21 | G115 | 14 | 11.9 | -2.1 FTE (-14.7%) | 70% |
| 2027-02-07 | G101 | 53.7 | 46.1 | -7.6 FTE (-14.1%) | 51% |
| 2027-01-17 | G115 | 12.9 | 11.1 | -1.8 FTE (-13.9%) | 71% |
| 2027-01-03 | G117 | 13.2 | 11.5 | -1.8 FTE (-13.5%) | 69% |
| 2027-01-10 | G115 | 12.5 | 10.9 | -1.6 FTE (-12.9%) | 73% |
| 2027-01-31 | G101 | 52.4 | 46 | -6.4 FTE (-12.1%) | 55% |
| 2027-02-14 | G116 | 16.7 | 14.8 | -1.9 FTE (-11.4%) | 76% |
| 2027-02-07 | G152 | 13.6 | 12.1 | -1.5 FTE (-11.0%) | 71% |
| 2027-01-24 | G116 | 15.8 | 14.1 | -1.7 FTE (-10.6%) | 77% |
| 2027-01-03 | G101 | 43.5 | 39 | -4.5 FTE (-10.4%) | 64% |
| 2027-02-14 | G101 | 52.2 | 46.7 | -5.4 FTE (-10.4%) | 63% |
How this was produced
- Corrections. Each gate-channel carries a learned correction to the forecast of record, for volume and handle time. It is learned slowly from clean days only, capped per day, and sped up only when a sustained run confirms a real shift.
- Detection. Single-series outliers, estate-wide spikes and staffing shortfalls that nothing logged explains are flagged and excluded from learning. A staffing shortfall never changes the demand forecast.
- Migrations. The receiving gate's level is frozen at the first wave. The migration ratio is estimated as one pooled figure with its uncertainty, and applied only when it is clearly distinguishable from plan.
- Requirement and outcome. Required staff is recomputed with Erlang C (concurrency applied once; email as workload). Projected SL is at the planned staff. The P10–P90 range reflects day-to-day noise plus 2% level uncertainty.
- Status. This is a proposal. Nothing is published until the gates are reviewed. Synthetic data.