Staffing outlook · forecast of record 2026-10-04@2026-10-04T08:15 — update note 2026-10-05
Scale: scaled · Weeks 0–24 · Estates: Product A, Product C, Product D, Product E · SL model: Erlang A · Grades: [M] measured [C] computed [E] estimated [A] asserted
Headline numbers
- Opening week 0: supply 1204.6 vs requirement 1217.6 FTE → -13.0 (-1.1%) [C], projected SL 75% [A]
- Worst week: week 18 (w/c 2027-02-08) — -57.7 FTE (-5.3%) against 1081.7 required, status AMBER [C]; projected SL 51%, abandonment 5.5% [A] against target 80%
- Product A: worst week 18 (w/c 2027-02-08), -24.8 FTE (-5.9%) [C], SL 60% [A]
- Product C: worst week 18 (w/c 2027-02-08), -11.3 FTE (-6.0%) [C], SL 66% [A]
- Product D: worst week 18 (w/c 2027-02-08), -19.9 FTE (-7.2%) [C], SL 60% [A]
- Product E: worst week 13 (w/c 2027-01-04), -9.0 FTE (-5.1%) [C], SL 69% [A]
- Closing week 24: 101.7 FTE (8.8%) [C], projected SL 99% [A]
- Weeks red: none · amber: 13, 17, 18 (amber beyond 3% under, red beyond 8%)
Mobilization
- PLAN-A wave A-hire-2027-02: 8.1 FTE, starts week 11 (w/c 2026-12-21), nesting from week 17, live week 17 (w/c 2027-02-01) (cumulative 8.1) [E] — hire-by met: recruit 6 wk + train 6 wk
- PLAN-E wave E-hire-2027-02: 14.2 FTE, starts week 13 (w/c 2027-01-04), nesting from week 17, live week 17 (w/c 2027-02-01) (cumulative 14.2) [E] — hire-by met: recruit 6 wk + train 4 wk
- PLAN-A wave A-hire-2027-03: 24.1 FTE, starts week 15 (w/c 2027-01-18), nesting from week 21, live week 21 (w/c 2027-03-01) (cumulative 32.2) [E] — hire-by met: recruit 6 wk + train 6 wk
- PLAN-C wave C-hire-2027-03: 8.6 FTE, starts week 15 (w/c 2027-01-18), nesting from week 21, live week 21 (w/c 2027-03-01) (cumulative 8.6) [E] — hire-by met: recruit 6 wk + train 6 wk
- PLAN-D wave D-hire-2027-03: 21.6 FTE, starts week 13 (w/c 2027-01-04), nesting from week 21, live week 21 (w/c 2027-03-01) (cumulative 21.6) [E] — hire-by met: recruit 6 wk + train 8 wk
- PLAN-E wave E-hire-2027-03: 10.9 FTE, starts week 17 (w/c 2027-02-01), nesting from week 21, live week 21 (w/c 2027-03-01) (cumulative 25.1) [E] — hire-by met: recruit 6 wk + train 4 wk
What would change the answer
- If requirement runs 5% above forecast, the worst week stays week 18 at -111.8 FTE (-9.8%), projected SL 26% [A].
- If productive hours per FTE are 5% lower (30.9 h), projected SL in the worst week becomes 52% [A] — the gap in FTE does not move, the service level does.
- Pulling wave A-hire-2027-03 (24.1 FTE) forward one week does not change the worst week [C].
- Under Erlang C (infinite patience) the same week projects SL 0% [A].
Assumptions
| Path | Value | Range | Status | Grade | Owner | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sl.target | 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.8 / 0.9 | confirmed | A asserted | voice target from the gate registry | |
| sl.threshold_sec | 20 | 20 / 20 / 30 | confirmed | A asserted | voice answer threshold from the gate registry | |
| sl.model_a | 1 | confirmed | A asserted | Erlang A: callers abandon, as in the cycle; Erlang C at estate scale forecasts a collapse no pooled operation shows | ||
| sl.patience_sec | 480 | 60 / 120 / 240 | confirmed | E estimated | voice patience from the gate registry | |
| outlook.amber_pct | 0.03 | 0.02 / 0.03 / 0.05 | default | A asserted | Under-cover beyond this share of requirement shows amber | |
| outlook.red_pct | 0.08 | 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.12 | default | A asserted | Under-cover beyond this share of requirement shows red | |
| week.productive_hours | 32.5 | 30 / 32.5 / 35 | default | E estimated | Productive hours per FTE per week after shrinkage | |
| week.open_hours | 84 | 60 / 84 / 168 | default | A asserted | Hours per week the queue is open (spread load uniformly across them) | |
| shrinkage.default | 0.3 | 0.25 / 0.3 / 0.35 | default | E estimated | Shrinkage used when a supply row carries none | |
| channel.voice.aht_sec | 1534 | 300 / 360 / 480 | confirmed | M measured | last 28 days, handled-weighted | |
| channel.chat.aht_sec | 1788 | 600 / 900 / 1200 | confirmed | M measured | last 28 days, elapsed basis | |
| channel.email.aht_sec | 1077 | 420 / 600 / 900 | confirmed | M measured | last 28 days, handled-weighted | |
| chat.concurrency | 2 | 1.5 / 2 / 3 | default | E estimated | Concurrent chat sessions per agent |
Open questions
- [ ] Q1: Hiring asks enter supply at the earliest class start; confirm the recruiting lead time per product before quoting go-live weeks. (capacity planning)
Method
Agents on the floor = FTE × productive hours ÷ open hours. The requirement line is read as the staffing that meets the SL target; the week's offered load is the one at which the Erlang model needs exactly that staffing (implied load). Delivered SL is the same model read at the supply line. Channels are pooled into one queue with a mix-weighted handle time; this ranks weeks and sizes gaps, it does not reproduce a multi-skill ACD. Every computed number carries the weakest grade among its inputs.
Provenance: staffing-outlook 0.1.0 @ 312f16f · generator browser · code names yes